In 2016, columnist Salena Zito coined the quintessential phrase about Donald Trump’s meteoric political rise when she noted that his supporters take him seriously, but not literally, while his detractors take him literally, but not seriously.
This week, maybe for the first time, that dynamic has changed. On tariffs, President Trump should be taken absolutely literally, and so far, he is doing exactly what his staunchest supporters want him to.
In fairness, Trump may be the most accomplished and successful employer of hyperbole since P.T. Barnum, and we still see this in his calls to make Canada the 51st state, take over Greenland by military force, or turn Gaza into a 5-star resort destination.
PRICE TAG: HOW MUCH AMERICANS COULD PAY BETWEEN TARIFFS AND TAX CUTS EXPIRING
In all of these cases, Trump seems to be saying things so over the top that they force a reaction, to get the other parties to the negotiating table with himself in a position of strength.
So, it makes sense that the president’s game of chicken over tariffs against the rest of the world could just be a 5-D negotiating strategy, something that free-market-minded Republicans insisted was the most likely reality throughout the election, and even up to this moment.
Even Elon Musk, the stalwart Trump buddy, distanced himself from the tariff policy, sharing a famous video of economist Milton Friedman explaining how free trade keeps the price of pencils low.
On Monday, Milton Friedman’s pencil met Donald Trump’s sharpie.
On Tuesday, more clarity came from Vice President JD Vance in response to an X post of mine pointing out that two weeks ago Democrats argued Trump only wanted to enrich his billionaire buddies, but now, they are losing money and begging Trump to change course.
Vance wrote, “It’s bizarre to see all the limousine socialists screech desperately for dependence on Chinese supply chains and inflated equities.” That doesn’t sound like the administration is bluffing, but try telling that to the markets and the media.
They still can’t quite fathom that Trump might actually impose harsh tariffs instead of finding an off-ramp, and we saw some proof of that already this week.
INDONESIA, OTHER COUNTRIES COME TO TRUMP TARIFF NEGOTIATING TABLE
On Monday, in a moment of dark comedy, the market rebounded by almost a thousand points on news from CNBC that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. The only problem was that this “breaking news” came from a bogus X account that could have been a 12-year-old in his bedroom in Belarus.
About 20 minutes later the gains were wiped out.
How does this happen? Easy. It’s too good to check. Trump backing down is exactly what everyone in the market and the media were expecting and waiting for, so of course, they jumped on a piece of news that might just as well have come from a fortune cookie.
But on the issue of tariffs, there is strong reason to believe that Trump is not engaging in hyperbole to get a better deal. In fact, fighting against globalism is a lifelong passion of Trump’s and something he may well see as his most important job as president.
After all, Donald Trump’s first run for the presidency was not as a Republican in 2016, it was in 2000 as a candidate for the Reform Party, the Reform Party founded by Ross Perot to push back against NAFTA and other trade deals.
TRUMP RISKS IT ALL, TAKES ON THE WORLD WITH TARIFFS AND PUTS AMERICA FIRST
The Reform Party was also the home of Pat Buchanan, another anti-free-trader and culture warrior who was in many ways a precursor to Trump.
This fight is in the president’s political DNA.
What’s more, is that Trump’s base, the only group of people the president ever seems to answer to, not only take his tariff regime literally, many are cheering it on as the first real step to restoring communities they see as gutted by free trade.
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After 30 years of broken promises about green industry, big tech, and shovel-ready jobs, many in small-town America see Trump’s tariffs as the only chance they have left.
This is why Trump’s approval rating has held more or less steady despite the tariff temper tantrums we see in most of the media. Even in polls that show his support for the economy underwater, he still has the 40 to 45 percent of Americans who are his strongest supporters backing him.
To be sure, it is still possible that President Trump will arrive at deals with individual nations or groups of them, to avoid a trade war. We have seen movement in that direction with regard to Israel, Vietnam, and the European Union over the last few days.
However, this does not mean that the prevailing wisdom which suggests such deals are inevitable is correct. In fact, it’s not even clear that abandoning the tariffs is the more likely outcome at this point.
Americans are not, much to the chagrin of the liberal media, buying up essentials at the big box stores in anticipation of economic disaster. There is plenty of toilet paper at Walmart, and that isn’t because Americans are convinced the tariffs won’t happen; it’s because they aren’t terribly frightened by the possibility that they will.
Sometimes it is the exception that proves the rule, and for once, on the issue of tariffs, Americans had better take Donald Trump both literally and seriously, because there is a very good chance that he will not back down.
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