President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkfoff visited Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Trump’s proposed ceasefire in Ukraine on Thursday. While the White House has yet to comment on the meeting, Russian media reported that it had taken place late Thursday and that Putin had sent a “message” to Trump via Witkoff.
During a Thursday press conference, Putin thanked Trump for his efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine and said that he was “for” the idea but that “there are nuances.” In a seven-minute-30-second speech, the Russian strongman outlined a list of issues associated with concluding a 30-day ceasefire, including difficulties with verifying potential violations. Before Putin’s address, presidential aid Yuri Ushakov, speaking on Russian national TV, had ruled out a temporary ceasefire, calling it “some steps imitating peaceful activities.” Putin indicated that he wanted to have a phone call with President Trump.
Zelenskyy slammed Putin for being “very manipulative” and accused Putin of “actually preparing a refusal.” Late last month, Trump slammed Zelenskyy for declaring that the peace deal was “very far away,” calling it “the worst statement” and saying, “America will not put up with it for much longer!”
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But Zelenskyy is correct – peace in Ukraine is a long way off. Putin is highly unlikely to accept President Trump’s current peace plan. Here’s why.
Famous for his tireless work ethic, Trump demands that his staff accomplish things at record speeds, or “in Trump time,” as Peter Navarro, the president’s senior advisor and principal architect of Trump’s tariff doctrine called it in his best-selling book, with the same name.
It is understandable that Trump wants to keep his campaign promise and stop the bloodshed on the Eurasian landmass quickly.
But with all due respect to President Trump and his accomplishments, the Russia-Ukraine situation is extremely complex. Russia has a very different strategic culture from Western culture. And Putin is an entirely different kind of animal from anyone Trump has dealt with before. Russian thinking, and its relationship with time, are epitomized in a famous saying: “The more slowly you go, the farther you will get.”
First, as Trump said, correctly, during the press conference, Putin “has all the cards.” And Vladmir Putin is not in a hurry. He wants to end the war but only on his terms, which, if accepted by the U.S., would humiliate Washington.
On March 6th, Putin publicly ruled out making any concessions on Ukraine. “We don’t need anything that belongs to others, but we will not give up what’s ours,” he said in a speech broadcast on Russian national TV.
Putin believes he can call the shots. Unconscionable Russian (and Ukrainian) losses notwithstanding, Russia is capable of dragging this war out for years. Indeed, Putin has been developing his strategy ever since he became president, a quarter of a century ago. He transitioned his military and economy on a wartime footing and sanction-proofed Russia seven years prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It is why the Russians largely dismissed Trump’s threat of “large-scale” sanctions. “To speak with Russia from the position of strength and to threaten with sanctions is a road to nowhere,” said State Duma Representative from the Crimea Region Yuri Nesterenko.
Additional sanctions are highly unlikely to change Putin’s decision calculus. They haven’t thus far, despite the fact that Washington has been trying to choke Moscow for a decade. The severity of U.S. sanctions on Russia tops the sanctions placed on Hitler’s Germany during World War II. The Russians believe there is nothing Trump can do to top Biden’s sanctions.
To neutralize the effect of future U.S. sanctions, Putin de-dollarized Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, beefed up the Sovereign Wealth Fund to an all-time-high, and launched an import-substitution program to spur indigenous production, minimizing Russia’s reliance on imports. Moscow also stood up a shadow tanker fleet to continue oil exports, clandestinely.
Second, Ushakov’s rejection of Trump’s proposal of a temporary ceasefire is not surprising. Putin has indicated multiple times that a temporary break in fighting was out of the question as he doesn’t want to give a strategic pause to Ukraine, Europe or the U.S., to rearm. In June, speaking at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Putin said that temporary peace “will not work for Moscow, as adversaries will use the freezing of the conflict to replenish Ukraine’s combat losses and deficit in armaments.”
Indeed, Russia, being on a wartime footing, now produces more weapons in three months than the entire NATO alliance in one year, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Putin also increased Russia’s armed forces above the constitutionally allowable size, to ensure that Russia can fight till the last Ukrainian.
Ukraine is outmanned, outgunned and lacking proper war-fighting capabilities, emboldening Putin to continue what he started, aiming for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
Third, there’s a series of legal impediments that Moscow and Kyiv must resolve before any deal can be signed. Neither has shown any signs of willingness to resolve them. Even when they agree to do so, it will take time. Things in Ukraine and Russia do not happen in Trump time.
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Putin ruled out negotiating with Zelenskyy, having told state Rossiya 1 TV that “he [Zelenskyy] has no right to sign anything,” having called the Ukrainian leader “illegitimate.” Indeed, Zelenskyy’s presidential term expired in May.
The Ukrainian parliament, at the end of February, rebuffed U.S. calls for elections by passing a resolution that ruled out elections during wartime, citing martial law, in compliance with the Ukrainian constitution. On February 5th, Zelenskyy approved the extension of martial law until May 9th.
Moreover, in October 2022, Zelenskyy prohibited negotiations with Putin by a presidential decree, having declared that Ukraine would negotiate only with “another president of Russia.” Even if the legal quagmire is resolved, organizing and holding elections will take time.
If a peace plan for Ukraine is to be achieved, it will almost certainly not be achieved in Trump time, but more likely in Putin time.
There’s no shame if Trump fails to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conundrum, in Trump time. The shame is on Biden and Obama, whose careless policies brought Russia and Ukraine to each other’s throats. Trump inherited a gigantic geopolitical mess, which was years in the making.
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